2023年12月30日发(作者：)
江恩期货教程Gann Master Commodities Course
江恩生平及简历
江恩(1878-1955)：于1878年6月6日出生于美国德克萨斯州的路芙根市（Lufkin
Texas)，父母是爱尔兰裔移民。少年时代的江恩在火车上卖报纸和送电报，还贩卖明信片、食品、小饰物等。江恩被世人所津津乐道的辉煌事亦是1909年他在25个交易里赚了10倍！这一年再婚的江恩接受当时著名的《股票行情与投资文摘》杂志访问。在杂志编辑的监督下，江恩在25个交易日里进行286次交易，其中264次获利，其余22次亏损，胜算高达92．3%。而资本则增值了10倍。平均交易间隔是20分钟。在华尔街投机生涯中，江恩大约赚取了5000万美元的利润。在今天，相当于5亿美元以上的数量。虽然和其他的一些投资大师相比，他的财富数量并不算什么，但是我认为最重要的是他靠自己的新发现去赚取他应得的财富。
1902年，江恩在24岁时，第一次入市买卖棉花期货。
1906年，江恩到奥克拉荷马当经纪，既为自己炒，亦管理客户。
在1908年，江恩30岁时，他移居纽约，成立了自己的经纪业务。同年8月8日，发展了他最重要的市场趋势预测方法，名为“控制时间因素” 。经过多次准确预测后，江恩声名大噪。
最为人瞩目的是1909年10月美国“The Ticketr and Investment Digest”杂志编辑Richard .Wyckoff的一次实地访问。在杂志人员的监察下，江恩在十月份的二十五个市场交易日中共进行286次买卖，结果，264获利，22次损失，获利率竟达92.3%。
据江恩一位朋友基利的回述：“1909年夏季，江恩预测9月小麦期权将会见1.20美元。可是，到9月30日芝加哥时间十二时，该期权仍然在1.08美元之下徘徊，江恩的预测眼看落空。江恩说：„如果今日收市时不见1.20美元，将表示我整套分析方法都有错误。
不管现在是什么价，小麦一定要见1.20美元。‟结果，在收市前一小时，小麦冲上1.20美元，震动整个市场，该合约不偏不倚，正好在1.20美元收市。”
江恩的事业高峰期，他共聘用二十五人，为他制作各种分析图表及进行各类市场走势研究，并成立两间走势研究公司：江恩科学服务公司及江恩研究公司，出版多种投资通讯。在他每年出版的全年走势预测中，他清楚的绘制在什么时间见什么价位的预测走势图，准确性甚高。
江恩相信股票、期货市场里也存在着宇宙中的自然规则，市场的价格运行趋势不是杂乱的，而是可通过数学方法预测的。江恩的数学方程并不复杂，实质就是价格运动必然遵守支持线和阻力线，也就是——江恩线.
此外，江恩亦主持走势分析方法讲座，收费惊人。在一个名为《掌握预测方法》讲座中，江恩向每位参加者收取二千五百美元。而另一个名为《新机械式买卖方法及趋势指标》讲座，收费更高达五千美元。
江恩不单预测市场，即使美国总统选举，大战结束的时间，他都可以根据数字及字母的排列配合周期进行预测。
江恩在1949年出版了他最后一本重要著作《在华尔街45年》，此时江恩已是72岁高龄，他坦诚披露了纵横市场数十年的取胜之道。其中江恩十二条买卖规则是江恩操作系统的重要组成部分，江恩在操作中还制定了二十一条买卖守则，江恩严格的按照十二条买卖规则和二十一条买卖守则进行操作。
江恩在《华尔街四十五年》一书末段关于未来几年（1950-1953年）的预测显然是错误的，美国经济在1949年陷入困境，因此江恩看淡1950-1953年的经济表现。但事实是，1950-1953年美国GDP又恢复高速增长，相反倒是江恩认为见底的1953年才开始快速回落，1954年陷入衰退。虽然如此，并不影响这本书的阅读价值，因为从该书中，我们可以了解到更全面、更真实的江恩。
目录
A Note About This Master Course
关于这份高级教程
Grains Lessons 谷物篇
Chapter 1: Speculation A Profitable Profession: A Course Of Instructions On
Grains
第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述
Chapter 2: Mechanical Method And Trend Indicator For Trading In Grains.
第2章： 谷物交易的方法和趋势指导
Chapter 3: 2-Day Chart Moves Time Turns.
第3章：2日图的转向
Chapter 4A: Rules forTrading In Soy Beans, Corn, Wheat, Oats And Rye
(Sept. 1950)
第四章A：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）
Chapter 4B: Rules for Trading In Soy Beans, Corn, Wheat, Oats And Rye
(1950年10月)
第四章B：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）
Chapter 5A: The Basis Of My Forecasting Method For Grains - Geometric
Angles (c.1940+)
第五章A：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(c.1940+)
Chapter 5B: The Basis Of My Forecasting Method For Grains - Geometric
Angles (1951)
第五章B：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(1951)
Chapter 6: Squaring The Price Of Grains With Time
第六章：时间与价格的转换（这个有点难翻译，请指教）
Chapter 7: Forecasting Grains By Time Cycles.
第七章：预测谷物的周期循环
Chapter 8: Soy Beans Price Resistance Levels
第八章：大豆的价格阻力等级
Cotton Lessons 棉花篇
Chapter 9: Mechanical Cotton Method And New Trend Indicator
第九章：棉花交易的方法和最新趋势指导
Chapter 10: Cotton Forecasting Instructions
第十章：棉花交易的预测指导
Eggs Lessons 鸡蛋篇
Chapter 11: Master Egg Course
第十一章：鸡蛋高级教程
Master Calculators And Related Lessons 关于价格计算器的高级内容
（Calculators也可以译为计算图表，后面将根据本篇全文内容来重新修正）
Chapter 12: The Master Mathematical Price Time And Trend Calculator
第十二章：时间价格和趋势的高级运算
Chapter 13A: How To Use The Master Calculator - May Soy Beans (1953)
第十三章A：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1953)
Chapter 13B: How To Use The Master Calculator - May Soy Beans (1955)
第十三章B：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1955)
Chapter 14: Master Calculator For Weekly Time Periods To Determine The
Trend Of Stocks And Commodities
第十四章：股票和商品期货中周线时间周期的趋势确定
Chapter 15: Cash And May Soy Bean Futures
第十五章：五月大豆期货的买卖
Chapter 16: May Soy Beans Square Of 67 - Time Periods For Days, Weeks,
Months
第十六章：五月大豆的年月日周期与67的平方关系
Master Charts 高级图表
Chapter 17A: Master Charts
第十七章A：高级图表
Chapter 17B: The Hexagon Chart
第十七章B：六边形图表
Chapter 18: Master Price And Time Chart - Squares 1 to 33 Inclusive, Price
And Time 1 to 1089
第十八章：时价从1循环到1089并包含1到33的平方的重要价格和时间图表（翻译准确难度大！）
Chapter 19: Price And Time Chart - Cycle of 0° to 360. Time Periods 15 Days
Equals Degrees - 24 cycles 24 Price For Daily Time Charts
第十九章：15天与24时间价格循环与0 °to 360°的时间价格循环的关系图表（翻译准确难度大！）
Other Writings 其它
Chapter 20: May Coffee Santos D （不知如何译）
第二十章：留空
Chapter 21: Supply & Demand Letters
第二十一章：补充和信件来往
2006年7月18日 1:26
目录
关于这份高级教程
谷物篇
第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述
第2章： 谷物交易的技术方法及其发展趋势指标
第3章：2日图的转向
第四章A：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）
第四章B：关于大豆、 玉米、 小麦、 燕麦和黑麦的交易规则（1950年9月）
第五章A：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(c.1940+)
第五章B：我的预测方法是基于几何学角度(1951)
第六章：时间与价格的转换
第七章：预测谷物的周期循环
第八章：大豆的价格阻力等级
棉花篇
第九章：棉花交易的方法和最新发展趋势指标
第十章：棉花交易的预测指标
鸡蛋篇
第十一章：鸡蛋高级教程
关于价格计算器的高级内容
第十二章：时间价格和趋势的高级运算法
第十三章A：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1953)
第十三章B：高级运算在五月大豆期货合约上的运用(1955)
第十四章：股票和商品期货中周线时间周期的趋势确定
第十五章：五月大豆期货的买卖
第十六章：五月大豆的年月日周期与67的平方关系
高级图表
第十七章A：高级图表
第十七章B：六边形图表
第十八章：时价从1循环到1089并包含1到33的平方的重要价格和时间图表
第十九章：15天与24时间价格循环与0 °to 360°的时间价格循环的关系图表
其它
第二十章：五月咖啡的行星角度
第二十一章：补充和读编往来
2006年7月18日 1:26 19日校正。
关于本书
这本高级期货教程来源于大量的课堂笔记，但这里面所有的内容并不是全部来源于江恩公开实用的教程。
这本教程乃是经一小部分爱好者花费巨大的时间和精力认真搜集，汇编及校对而成。编写这一教程的最大目标是希望这些资料能给那些研究江恩的爱好者以最大的帮助。
在这本高级教程中，我们仔细的抄录每部分的内容，以尽量保持江恩原著的真实性，并且已经仔细按正规的格式编好章节和页码。
我们的主要工作是复制原文并作一些拼写及语法匹配和修改。但不乏例外：
在明显与前文的重复之处或者出现较为明显错误的地方，我们进行了相应的更正。读者应该注意到那些所有细微的更正皆是为了避免改变原文原有的潜在涵义。(黑水备注：本教程初始来源就相当于手抄本，所以错误及混乱的地方肯定很多。感谢原作者及其同道在这上面下了不少的功夫。)
其它地方，在有明显错误的原文旁边加入了更正标记，这样将使得前后文的意思更加的
连贯和清晰。所有的标记是放在方括号内的，比如［我喜欢］这样的字句。所以这样提示在文中多处出现，读者能否接受则最终取决于他们自己。文中很多象这样的注解提示皆出于编者自己的理解，但最终能否接纳完全取决于本书的读者。
我对那些花费大量时间整理抄写资料的朋友致以最真的感谢，没有您们的帮助本教程绝对难以面世。
我真心希望这分教程能对江恩理论的研究者和爱好者有巨大的帮助。
Damian Gillman 编写于 2004年6月2日
本节 翻译：黑水 校正：元亨 东张西望
第一章 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述－(江恩期货教程中文版 )－003
CHAPTER 1
SPECULATION A PROFITABLE PROFESSION:A COURSE OF INSTRUCTIONS ON GRAINS
第1章： 投机是一门有利可图的职业： 谷物市场概述
A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.
行之有效的谷物实用交易规则
In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks
and commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book, “Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years
went by I learned more about the market and realized that others
needed the help that I could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying to help themselves.
在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的《投机是一门有利可图的职业》书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。
In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a small account of money can get a market education and start with a small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after they learn them.
写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。
My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in
commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities you are trading in the necessities of ity prices obey the law of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.
我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格
大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。
When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules and you will make speculation a profitable profession.
当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。
-----------------------------2006-7-19 1:26:43第一版
who are accustomed to giving orders to others and have them carried out will often when they get into the market, especially
for the first time, expect the market to follow their orders or move their way. They must learn that they cannot make the market trend go their way. They must follow the market trend as is indicated by fixed rules and protect their capital and profits by the use of STOP LOSS orders. There is no harm in making a few mistakes and a few small losses because small losses are the expense of a successful speculator. If you intend to make speculation a profitable profession you must learn all the rules and apply all of them to det
ermine the trend. Professional men, such as lawyers, doctors, accountants and engineers spend years in training and a large amount
of money to learn how to succeed in their chosen profession. You
must spend time and money to learn the profession and become a
successful speculator or investor.
那些在生活中习惯发号施令并让别人强行执行他们指令的人当进入市场时，尤其是初次进入市场时经常希望市场遵循他们的指令或按照他们的愿望变化。他们必须认识到市场是不可能按照他们的意图运行。他们必须遵从市场规则所显示的趋势并且通过设置止损来保护资金和利益。犯一点错误以及蒙受一点损失是没有害处的，因为少量的损失是一个成功投机者的学费。如果你打算进入投机这个有利可图的领域，你必须学会所有的规则并且应用这些规则去确定趋势。专业人员，就像律师，医生，会计以及工程师花费多年时间和大量金钱去学习怎样在自己选择的职业中获得成功。你必须花费时间和金钱去学此专业从而变成一个成功的投机者或投资人。
A Course of Instructions With Time Tested Practical Rules of Trading in Grains.
行之有效的谷物实用交易规则
In 1911 after I had made a great success trading in stocks and
commodities, there was a public demand for a book with my rules for
trading successfully. This demand was answered by my first small book,
“Speculation A Profitable Profession”. As the years went by I learned
more about the market and realized that others needed the help that I
could give them and I wrote more books to help others who were trying
to help themselves.
在1911年我在股票和期货交易市场取得了巨大的成功后，公众要求我写一本交易成
功的规则的手册。这种要求已经在我的《投机是一门有利可图的职业》书中给予回答。随着时间的推移，我在市场中获得了更多的经验，让我意识到应该写更多的给予那些需要帮助的朋友们。
In May 1954 I am nearing my 76th Birthday and am writing this
new course of instructions not to make money for I have more income
than I can spend but realizing the demand and the need for more
knowledge about future trading by so many people I now give the
benefit of my 52 years experience to help those who need it. The price
of this course is made reasonable in order that men and women with a
small account of money can get a market education and start with a
small capital and make a success provided they follow the rules after
they learn them.
写这本新规则教程是在1954年5月正是我快过76岁生日时候，金钱对我已无丝毫意义。我的收入远大于日常消费。因此写本书的目的是将我在期货交易市场上52年的好的经验给予那些在需要更多知识和帮助的人们。假如认真学习了本书的规则后，大家可以开一个小的资金帐户在市场上开始交易并会让你赚钱。
My experience has proved that it is more profitable to trade in
commodities than stocks and you can make larger profits on the same
amount of capital with smaller risk. When you trade in commodities
you are trading in the necessities of ity prices obey the law
of supply and demand and follow a seasonal trend most of the time.
我的经验证明，商品期货比股票市场能让你更能赢利，，因为你用同样的资金和更小的风险能博取更大的利润。商品期货交易与你平时生活中的交易无多大的区别。商品价格大多数时间服从和跟随季节性的供需规律和状况。
When you learn the rules and follow them you eliminate trading on
Hope, Fear,and Guesswork which is nothing but gamble and you cannot
afford to risk your money gambling. You must follow mathematical
rules which I have proved to be realistic guide in trading. You must
prove to yourself that the rules have always worked in the past and
they will work in the future. When you have the proof follow the rules
and you will make speculation a profitable profession.
当您学会规则并且遵循这些规则交易时，你必须抛弃你对市场的一厢情愿和恐惧，因为你的赌博和你的臆测将会给你的资金造成极大的风险。 您必须遵循我给出的已经被当前市场证明的数学规则。 您必须亲自验证这些规则在市场上过去和未来的运用。 当您已经验证并且遵循规则进行交易，你将会在这投机市场上获得成功。
HOW TO MAKE SPECULATION A PROFITABLE PROFESSION
如何进行有利可图的投机？
Speculation or investment is the best business in the world if you make
a business of it. But in order to make a success of it you must study and
be prepared and not guess, follow inside information, or depend on
hope or fear. If you do you will
fail. Your success depends on knowing the right kind of rules and
following them.
如果你想做生意，投机或者投资是这个世界上最好的买卖！但是在操作之前你必须认真学习和作好准备。任何猜测、跟随内部消息、希望和恐惧都将导致你失败。你只有通过依靠正确的方法方可成功。
FUNDAMENTAL RULES
基本规则
Keep this well in mind. For commodities to show up trend and
continue to advance they must make higher bottoms and higher tops.
When the trend is down they must make lower tops and lower bottoms
and continue on down to lower levels. But remember prices can move
in a narrower trading range for weeks or months or even years and not
make a new high or a new low. But after a long period of time when
commodities break into new lows they indicate lower prices and after a
long period of time when they advance above old highs or old tops they
are in a stronger position and indicate higher prices. This is the reason
why you must have a chart long ways back in order to see just what
position a commodity is in and at what stage it is between extreme high
and extreme low.
将这些规则熟记在心。当市场趋势向上时，其将走出更高的底部和更高的顶部。反之，将向下走出更低的顶部和底部。除此之外，价格可能会持续数周、数月甚至数年的区间盘整。但是当经过长时间的震荡后，价格突破前期低点，将预示着会产生新低，同理，当突破前期历史顶部后，将会创历史新高。这就是你需要拥有包含所有历史高低点的完整的市场数据图表的原因。
THE KIND OF CHARTS TO KEEP UP
图表的预测功能
Remember the old Chinese proverb “One good picture is worth
10,000 words”.You should make up charts and study the picture of a
commodity before you make a trade. You should have a weekly high
and low chart, a monthly high and low chart and a yearly high and low
chart. A yearly high and low chart should run back 5, 10 or 20 years if
you can get records that far. Monthly high and low chart should go back
for at least 10 years and the weekly high and low should go back for 2
or 3 years. When commodities are very active you should have a daily
high and low chart. This need not go back more than a few months.
Start the daily chart after the commodity breaks into great activity.
中国有句谚语：一图抵万言。因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你平时应该准备好包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。你最好能收集到能记录有过去5年、10年或20年的年线和至少10年的月线及2－3年的周线的历史高低点数据图表。当行情开始变得活跃时，可以不回顾前几个月的数据，这时你需要收集每天的高低点图表。当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。
－－－－
东张西望：
中国有句古话:一图抵万言.因此在你确定交易前应该整理和研究各品种图表。你应该搜集包含有年、月、周高低点的周期图表。采集年的高低点的时候,你应该回顾5,10,20年的信息,如果你能得到更远的数据.采集月的高低点,你应该回顾至少10年的信息,而周的高低点你至少采集2,3年信息.当行情活跃，你需要采集每天的高低点图表的时候你需要回顾几个月的信息.当行情发生巨大突破后，开始记录每天的图表。
年的高低点:5,10,20年甚至更远的信息
月的高低点:10年的信息
周的高低点:2~3年的信息
日的高低点:几个月的信息
FOLLOW THE MAIN TREND
顺应主要趋势
You will always make money by following the main trend of
commodities up or down. Remember that commodities are never too
high to buy as long as the trend is up and they are never too low to sell
as long as the trend is down. Never sell short just because the
commodity is high or because you think it is too high. Never sell out and
take profits just because the price is high. Buy and sell according to
definite rules and not on hope, fear or guesswork. Never buy a
commodity just because the commodity is low. There is usually a good
reason why it is low and it can go lower.
顺序大势操作你会在期货市场中不断获利。记住：只要趋势向上，不要因为太高而不敢买，相反，只要趋势向下，也不要太低而不敢卖。绝对不要因为价格太高而做短期卖出或者你认为它已经涨太高了。不能因为价格太高而先卖出获利。买卖是依照明确的规则来操作而不是你对市场的期望、恐惧或臆测。同时也不能因为价格太低而买进。有充足的理由证明市场为什么会不断创出新低。
RULES FOR BUYING AND SELLING
买卖规则
The first thing to remember before you start to apply any rules is
that you must always use a STOP-LOSS order to protect your capital.
When making a trade remember that you can be wrong or that the
market may change its trend and the STOP-LOSS order will protect you
and limit your loss. A small loss or several small losses can easily be
made back with one large profit, but when you let large losses run
against you it is hard to make them back.
在接受这些规则前你首先记住必须永远要下“止损单”来保护资金的安全。因为你可以会在交易中犯错或者市场趋势改变时，所以在交易中要用“止损单”来保护和减小你的损失。一次大的赢利抵得过一次或者几次小的损失，反之一次大的损失再想打回来时则困难得多了。
2006年7月21日 0.06
PROVE ALL THINGS AND HOLD FAST TO THAT WHICH IS GOOD
The Bible tells us this and it is well worth remembering. Many
people believe that it is wrong to buy at new high levels or to sell at new
low levels but it is most profitable and you must prove this to yourself
because when you do buy at newhigh levels or sell at new low levels
you are going with the trend of the market and your chances for making
profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope or
fear.
PROLONGED ADVANCES
After commodities have had a prolonged advance and wind up with
a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they come down very
quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when they
go up. That is why you must keep up somedaily charts at the end of a
fast move and keep up the weekly charts to determine the first change
in trend and be able to go with it.
SHARP DECLINE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
This usually follows a rapid advance and the first sharp declines
which may last from one month to as much as seven weeks usually
corrects an overbought position and leaves the market in position for a
secondary you are able to catch the extremes at the end
of any great time cycle you can make a large amount of money in one
year’s time trading in fast active markets, and some very large profits
in one month’s time. It makes no difference whether you catch the
extreme low or the extreme high – the opportunities are great for
making money providing you select the commodity that will lead.
LARGE PROFITS ON SMALL RISKS
You can make large profits on small risks provided you use a STOP
LOSS order, and apply all the rules and wait for a definite indication of
a change in trend up or down before you make a trade.
FIXED IDEAS AND FIXED PRICES
Never get a fixed idea of just how high any price is going to go or
just how low they are going. Never buy or sell on a price that you fix
because you may be trading on hope or fear and not following the trend
of the market and applying rules which will determine when the trend
is changing.
TOO LATE OR TOO SOON
You can lose money or miss opportunity by getting into the market
too soon or getting out too late. That is not waiting until a definite
change in trend is indicated, or failing to act in time when you see a
definite change in trend. Wait until youhave a well defined indication
that the trend is changed, then buy or sell. Follow all the rules in my
book “How to Make Profits on Commodities”. There are many rules in
my book “How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities” which are not
inthis course of instruction and by using all the rules you will make a
greater success.
HOPE AND FEAR
I repeat this because I have seen so many people go broke trading
on hope or fear. You will never succeed buying or selling when you
hope the market is going up or down. You will never succeed by making
a trade because you fear the market isgoing up or down. Hope will ruin
you, because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no
basis for action. Fear will often save you if you act quickly when you see
that you are wrong. “The fear of the market is the beginning of
wisdom”
. Knowledge which you can only obtain by deep study will help you
make a success. The more you study past records the surer you are to
be able to detect the trend of the future.
MAKE THE MARKET MOVE YOUR WAY
You must learn to realize that you cannot make the market go your
way, you must go the market’s way and must follow the trend. Many
successful business men（到这里就接上次的了）
PROVE ALL THINGS AND HOLD FAST TO THAT WHICH IS GOOD
坚持正确的方法
The Bible tells us this and it is well worth remembering. Many
people believe that it is wrong to buy at new high levels or to sell at new
low levels but it is most profitable and you must prove this to yourself
because when you do buy at new high levels or sell at new low levels
you are going with the trend of the market and your chances for making
profits are much better than guesswork or buying or selling on hope or
fear.
牢记《圣经》说这句话的深意。由于你坚持了正确的方法，即在常人眼中认为是错误的时候，坚决跟随市场趋势在创出新高后买进或在新低后卖出，由此获得了巨大利润，证明你获利机会比一味臆测、希望和恐惧多得多。（注：本段翻译非常不恰当，但是意思是正确的。）
PROLONGED ADVANCES
持久上涨的行情
After commodities have had a prolonged advance and wind up with
a fast, active, runaway market in most cases they come down very
quickly and much faster or in a shorter period of time than when they
go up. That is why you must keep up some daily charts at the end of a
fast move and keep up the weekly charts to determine the first change
in trend and be able to go with it.
多数实践证明市场在结束一轮长期持久而活跃的上涨行情后将马上有一轮快速下跌或者短期内有一次比它上涨速度更快的下跌，这就是为什么前面让你必然收集活跃行情的周、日线图表的原因，这样你才能在第一时间确定并跟随趋势的变化。
2006-7-22 1:27:00
SHARP DECLINE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
短期暴跌
This usually follows a rapid advance and the first sharp declines
which may last from one month to as much as seven weeks usually
corrects an over bought position and leaves the market in position for a
secondary you are able to catch the extremes at the end
of any great time cycle you can make a large amount of money in one
year’s time trading in fast active markets, and some very large profits
in one month’s time. It makes no difference whether you catch the
extreme low or the extreme high – the opportunities are great for
making money providing you select the commodity that will lead.
通常在一个持续一月到七周时间的过分的上涨后，短期就会出现首次快速下跌的超买行为来调整，为中级上涨作好准备。在这个快速而活跃的市场中，当你能在一个大周期循环结束后抓住这个拐点，那么你可以在每年和每月中获得巨大的利润。只要选择商品这个存在无数机会的大宗期货市场作为你的主要投资方式，其赢利模式与你是否抓住关键顶与底是无关的。
LARGE PROFITS ON SMALL RISKS
以小风险换取大利润
You can make large profits on small risks provided you use a STOP
LOSS order, and apply all the rules and wait for a definite indication of
a change in trend up or down before you make a trade.
假如你在做交易前应用所有的规则，在上涨或下跌趋势改变中等待明确的进场机会，并用“止损单”进行保护，那么你将会用较小的风险获得巨大的利润。
HOW TO PROTECT PROFITS
保护你的盈利
After you have accumulated profits it is just as important to protect
them with STOP-LOSS orders as it is to protect your original capital
because once you have made profits it is your capital and STOP LOSS
orders must be used to protect most dangerous thing that you
can do is to let a trade start going against you and lose back your profits.
A STOP-LOSS order will protect the profits and you can always get in
again when you are out, with capital. Remember when you are out of
the market the only thing you can lose or miss is an 52
years of experience has taught me that thousands of people have gone
broke trying to hold on until the trend turned. Avoid getting out of the
market too soon after move starts when you have a small profit. This
can be a great mistake. Get out of the market quickly as soon as you see
that you have made a mistake. If you place a STOP LOSS order this will
put you out of the market automatically.
必须要象保护本金一样用“止损单”保护你的既得赢利。因为你一旦获利，这些利润已经变成你的资本，所以必须要有止损意识。最危险的事是你后面开始逆势交易进而造成利润回吐。当你止损出场依然有本金让你有机会再次进场，因为“止损单”能始终保护你的利润。记住，当您在市场外面您唯一的损失只是失去或错过机会。我的52年经验告诉我很多人由于在市场已经发生转势时依然不清仓而导致破产。同时由于赚了些小钱不敢继续持有而太早离开市场却是犯了大错。当然在你发现已经犯错时要马上设定“止损单”自动离场。
FIXED IDEAS AND FIXED PRICES
不要固执已见
Never get a fixed idea of just how high any price is going to go or
just how low they are going. Never buy or sell on a price that you fix
because you may be trading on hope or fear and not following the trend
of the market and applying rules which will determine when the trend
is changing.
决不因为价格上升多高或者下跌多低都而固执已见。当市场趋势改变时，你要应用所有的规则顺应市场，决不在你期望和恐惧的价位进行买卖交易。
TOO LATE OR TOO SOON
不要错过机会
You can lose money or miss opportunity by getting into the market
too soon or getting out too late. That is not waiting until a definite
change in trend is indicated, or failing to act in time when you see a
definite change in trend. Wait until you have a well defined indication
that the trend is changed, then buy or sell. Follow all the rules in my
book “How to Make Profits on Commodities”. There are many rules in
my book “How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities”which are not in
this course of instruction and by using all the rules you will make a
greater success.
进场太快或出场太慢将导致你亏损或者错过不少机会。当你看到市场发出了明确的信号或在一定时间内趋势如果未发生明显变化时不要再错过。一直等到有明确的信号出现时才进行买卖。遵循我的《如何在商品市场中获利》一书中的所有规则，其中的有不少规则是我的另外一本《如何在商品期货交易中获利》这本教程所没有的，结合所有的规则你将会赚取更多的利润。
HOPE AND FEAR
期望和恐惧
I repeat this because I have seen so many people go broke trading
on hope or fear. You will never succeed buying or selling when you
hope the market is going up or down. You will never succeed by making
a trade because you fear the market is going up or down. Hope will ruin
you, because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no
basis for action. Fear will often save you if you act quickly when you see
that you are wrong. “The fear of the market is the beginning of
wisdom”. Knowledge which you can only obtain by deep study will help
you make a success. The more you study past records the surer you are
to be able to detect the trend of the future.
我之所以反复声明这些规则是因为我看到不少人在期望与恐惧交易而破产。当你期望市场按你的意愿上涨或者下跌时决不会成功的。同时当你对市场怀有恐惧心理而去交易时也不会成功。对市场异想天开和毫无依据的期望，最终将会毁灭你。“对市场的敬畏是智慧起点”， 经常对市场经常怀有敬畏之心那么你在犯错时却能及时挽救你。通过深入研究市场之道将帮助你获得成功。不断研究市场过去的走势能帮你确定市场未来的趋势。
MAKE THE MARKET MOVE YOUR WAY
永远不要一劳永逸
You must learn to realize that you cannot make the market go your
way, you must go the market’s way and must follow the trend. Many
successful business men who are accustomed to giving orders to
others and have them carried out will often when they get into the
market, especially for the first time, expect the market to follow their
orders or move their way. They must learn that they cannot make the
market trend go their way. They must follow the market trend as is
indicated by fixed rules and protect their capital and profits by the use
of STOP LOSS orders. There is no harm in making a few mistakes and a
few small losses because small losses are the expense of a successful
speculator. If you intend to make speculation a profitable profession
you must learn all the rules and apply all of them to determine the trend.
Professional men, such as lawyers, doctors, accountants and engineers
spend years in training and a large amount of money to learn how to
succeed in their chosen profession. You must spend time and money to
learn the profession and become a successful speculator or investor.
你要明白你不能左右市场，所以你必须不断学习来顺应市场，跟随趋势。当那些在传统行业习惯于发号施令并让别人执行其指令的成功人士进入市场时，尤其是初次进入市场时经常希望市场遵循他们的指令或按照他们的意愿变化。他们必须认识到市场是不可能按照他们的意图运行的。他们必须遵从既定规则所显示的市场趋势并且通过设置“止损单”来保护资金和利润。犯一点错误以及蒙受一点损失是没有害处的，因为少量的损失是一个成功投机者的学费。如果你打算进入投机这门有利可图的事业中你就要必须学会所有的规则并且应用这些规则去确定趋势。像律师、医生、会计以及工程师这样的专业人员都要花费多年时间和大量金钱去学习怎样在自己选择的职业中获得成功。所以你也必须花费时间和金钱去学此专业从而变成一个成功的投机者或投资人。2006-7-23 13:25 完成
HOWTO MAKE THE MOST MONEY IN THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF
TIME
如何在最短的时间赚到大钱？
Most people want to get rich too quick, that is why they lose their
money. They start speculating or investing without first preparing
themselves or getting a Commodity education. They do not have the
knowledge to start with and the result is they make serious mistakes
which cost them money. When you do have knowledge and are
prepared you can make the most money in the shortest period of time.
You must learn to follow the rules which I have laid down and proved to
you by examples that you can make a large amount of money in a short
period of time when the market is at the right stage for fast advances
and fast declines occur.
多数人希望快速致富，这就是他们亏损的原因。他们在没有做好初步准备或者没有经过交易培训的情况下开始投机或投资。他们没有进行交易所需要的知识，其结果就是造成严重的亏损，如果你拥有了知识并且做好了准备，你可以在最短的时间内赚到大钱。你必须学会遵从我制定并且已经被很多事实证明过的规则，这样你身处当前快速上升或快速下降的市场中，短时间内便能赚到大钱。
Do not try to lead the market or make the market. Follow the trend
which is made by big men who make big money and you will make
money. Buy when the big market makers are ready for prices to move
up fast, sell when they are ready for prices to move down fast and you
will make large profits in a short period of time. Trade only when the
market shows a definite trend and trade according to definite rules.
自己不要试图主导市场或操控市场。遵从由市场主力操控的市场趋势，那些人获得赚到大钱后且你也将随之获利。当市场大庄家已经准备好了在价格上快速拉升时买入，在快速打压时卖出，这样你就会在短期内获得很大的利润。只有当市场显示一个明确的趋势时进行交易，并且根据明确的规则进行交易。
Study the chart on Soy Beans for 1953 and 1954 and the examples
which I have given and you cannot fail to make profits provided you use
STOP LOSS orders as advised.
认真研究1953年以及1954年的大豆的图表和我给你们的例子，像我曾经建议的那样设置“止损单”，你在市场不赚钱都不行。
From March 8, 1954 to April 27, 1954 May Soy Beans advanced from
343½ to 422, a gain of 78½¢ per bushel in 50 calendar days and 35
actual market days. This would give a profit of $7,800 on 10,000
bushels and you were buying after the price was up $1.05 per bushel
from the low in August 1953 which proves that you can buy at new
highs in the last stage of a bull market and make large profits in a short
period of time. This is without guessing but following rules and buying
when the big people buy and of course you are with the trend made by
the big traders.
从1954年3月8日到1954年5月27日，大豆期货从343½ 美分涨到了422美分，在50个自然日合35个交易日内就有78½美分/蒲式耳的利润，这样10000蒲式耳将获得7800美元的收益。假设你在1953年8月从最低点开始上涨的1.05美元/蒲式耳处开始买进大豆，在经过证明的牛市后期你可以在新的高位买进并且在一个短时间内获得较大利润。这就是不要臆测但是要遵从规则，当主力买的时候买，当然你也要在顺应庄家趋势的前提下。
Refer to the trading examples on May Rye and you will see how
large profits could be made in a short period of time by selling short
after prices were down to comparatively low levels against the extreme
high levels.
参考我在5月黑麦上的交易例子，你就会看到为什么在这轮从一个相对高点急跌到一个相对低点的短线操作中短期内获得大量利润。2006-7-23 14:35 完成
WHY PEOPLE DO NOT MAKE MONEY BUYING AND SELLING
COMMODITIES
为什么大多数人在市场中赚不了钱？
I have stated in my books many times the market does not beat you,
it is your own human weakness that causes you to defeat yourself. The
average man or woman nearly always wants to buy low and sell high.
The farmer wants to sell at high prices whatever he produces but he
wants to buy what he needs at low prices. The labouring man wants
high wages all the time but wants low prices for what he buys to eat or
wear. This is a violation of a fundamental economic law and it just will
not work. To make a success in speculation you cannot expect to buy
low and sell high. You will make money when you do exactly the
opposite of what the average man or woman wants to do or tries to do
and makes a failure and loses as a result of what they are trying to do.
我在书中已经陈述了在大多数时间内由于人性的弱点而不是市场的过错导致你的损失。一般人通常都想买在最低卖在最高。农民却在想他种的农产品要卖个高价而低价购买他所需要的东西。工人一辈子都想高工资低消费。这些都违背了基本经济规律原理。要想投机成功，你不能时时想期货买在最低卖高。当你与那么自认为做对市场而造成失败和损失的人相反操作正确时，你才会赚钱。
You will make profits when you learn to BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW.
You must learn to follow the trend of prices and realize that they are
NEVER too HIGH TO BUY as LONG as the TREND is UP and NEVER TOO
LOW TO SELL AS LONG AS THE TREND IS DOWN.
当你学习了买高卖低这一部分内容后你会获利。你必须要学会跟随价格的趋势，只要
趋势向上就不要担心价格太高而不敢买，同时只要趋势向下时也不要担心价格太低而不敢卖。
－－东张西望修正了这段不正确的部分。
ONE GRAIN GOES UP WHILE ANOTHER GOES DOWN AT THE SAME
TIME
同一时间一种农产品上涨而另一品种却下跌
May Beans and May Rye 1953 - 54
1953 - 54的5月大豆期货与5月黑麦期货
Example: May 7, 1946 May Rye sold at 286.5, the highest price in
history. Many people remember this high price and buy all the way
down instead of selling. Why do they buy? Because after May Rye sold
at 286.5 it looked cheap at $2.00 and they buy it; at 150 it looks still
cheaper and they buy it but the trend is down and it goes lower. At 125
it looks still cheaper but it goes lower because the MAIN TREND IS
DOWN and the supply exceeds the demand or the selling is better than
the buying.
1946年5月7日，5月黑麦涨到历史最高286.5点。 许多人记得这个高价并随跌势一路买下来而不是卖。为什么他们要买？5月黑麦相对2美元的价格是比较便宜的，所以他们就买了。在150美分时看起来依然便宜，所以他们就一直买，但是这时趋势已经开始向下了并且价格持续走低。由于供求大于需求或者卖价高于买价而使得大势向下，跌到125美分更加低的位置。
May Soy Beans 1948 high 436-3/4. The price had moved up from
334 in October 1947, and after the trend turned down in less than one
month’s time, May Beans sold at 320? and three months later advanced
to 425. These wide fluctuations were the result of buying and selling.
Too many people got bullish too late and bought too late and later
became pessimistic when prices were down $1 per bushel. They then
sold and prices went up again.
五月大豆期货从1947年10月的334美分涨到1948年的436.75美分，然后趋势开始反转向下走低，在短短不到一个月的时间里，五月黄豆跌到320点。然后，三个月后价格又攀升至425。这样大幅度的波动是买卖的结果。太多人因为太晚发现牛市而买晚了，以至于价格下跌1美元/蒲式耳，他们就感到后悔莫及。于是他们又开始卖出，而价格又开始回升。
started up traders decided prices were TOO HIGH and at 270 they
SOLD SHORT. The WISE MAN who KNEW the TREND was up, BOUGHT.
When May Beans reached the previous old high of 311? in December
1953, which was the high of April 1953, the public decided that prices
were too high because in four month’s time, or since August, prices
went up over 70￠ per bushel so they sold out anything that they had
bought and sold short, hoping to buy lower.
1953年8月20日，五月黄豆期货低达239美分。1953年4月卖出价格为309美分。当五月黄豆突然拉升到达270美分的时候，期民都认为价格已经很高了而决定卖空。而聪明的人知道现在趋势向上，他们选择买入。1953年12月当五月黄豆攀升至1953年四月的那个历史311美分高点时，大部分人认为价格已经足够高了，因为从8月到现在的四个月以来，黄豆上涨70点/每蒲式耳，于是他们开始满仓卖空，等待低点买入。
Dec. 17, 1953 May Beans declined to 295-3/4 and made bottom,
then advanced to 310 around the high of December 1953. The public
decided prices were TOO HIGH and SOLD SHORT while the WISE
TRADERS BOUGHT AT NEW HIGHS following MY RULES and continued
to BUY AT NEW HIGHS because the TREND WAS UP.
1953年12月17日五月黄豆跌至295.75并形成底部，然后又上扬到310，在1953年12月的顶部盘整。大部分人认为价格到顶而卖空，少数聪明人按照我的法则买入，因为趋势一直是向上的。
1954 April 27th May Beans sold at 422, an advance of $1.82 per
bushel in eight months and seven days. The greatest advance in history
and the greatest range in any option.
1954年4月27日五月黄豆卖出价格为422，在8个月零7天的日子里，每蒲式耳上涨了1.82美元。这是有史以来最大的涨幅，也是最大的振荡。
本节由东张西望于2006-7-25 11:59:30翻译
Not only the small traders but men who had millions of dollars
bucked the trend and sold Soy Beans all the way up until May Beans
crossed $4 per bushel, then they all got panicky and bought to cover
shorts and take losses and many became so bullish that they bought
hoping prices would advance to $5 per bushel. There was talk of a
corner and a squeeze and a shortage of supply. The talk scared people
into buying.
在五月黄豆突破4美元/蒲式耳的迅速上扬趋势中，许多散户，甚至拥有百万投资的大户纷纷抛出手中的期货，而后他们又惊惶失措不计损失的反手买回他们卖空出去的期货，并期望价格上扬到5美元/蒲式耳，而从中获得利润。有种舆论说供给短缺，这种舆论使人们陷入了惊惶失措的购买狂潮中。
April 26th May and July closed at the limit, up 10￠ per bushel in
one news was in the newspapers, that the market has closed
at the limit with nothing offered. People who were Bears and selling
short when prices were 50￠ to75￠ per bushel lower, bought on fear
hoping for higher prices.
4月26日收市时，五月和七月合约触及涨停板，每蒲式耳上扬了10美分。报纸报道，期货市场触及涨停板，没有任何交易单。愚蠢的以及卖空的交易者在每蒲式耳下降了50～70美分的时候开始胆战心惊的买入，期望价格会升高。
This meant that the shorts had lost hope and that hope had turned
into despair and that they were covering shorts or buying. May Beans
sold at 422 on April 27th but closed at 411, lower than they closed on
April 26th when there were no beans offered. July Beans sold at 415 on
April 27th and closed at 405, lower by 4￠ per bushel than the night
before when none was offered for sale. THE PICTURE HAD CHANGED
OVER NIGHT. THE WISE BUYERS who had BOUGHT all the way up from
240 became sellers; they had been BUYING AT NEW HIGH LEVELS,now
they SOLD AT NEW LOW LEVELS, reversing their position and selling at
new low levels.
这一现象说明卖空者失去希望，希望变成了绝望以至于他们跟进空仓或者买入。4月27日，五月黄豆422开盘，411收盘，比26日没有交易单收盘时价格还低。同日，七月黄豆415开盘，405收盘，比昨日没有交易单收盘时候低了4美分。经过一夜图像翻转。从240上扬就买入的聪明的买家现在变成了卖家，他们已经在上扬的趋势中获利，现在他们准备在下跌的中赚钱，开始在新的价格反手卖出期货。
Prices rallied to April 30 but failed to reach highs of April 27th. On
May 3rd the real selling started and prices declined the limit of 10￠ per
bushel. May closing at 400-5/8 July closing at 398-1/8, down the limit
of 10￠ for one day. Why did prices go down like this? Because the wise
traders, when prices broke the low of April 20,SOLD AT NEW LOWS AND
they will continue to sell as prices continue to go lower, while the man
who WANTS TO BUY LOW and SELL HIGH will BUY all the way down and
LOSE. When Beans sell at 350, 250 and eventually below $2 they will
look like great bargains and the bargain hunters will remember 422
and 415 highs on April 27, 1954 and will BUY because they HOPE that
PRICES will go up to HIGH LEVELS again. And the result can be but one
thing, they will lose their money, while the man who follows the TREND
will SELL SHORT all the way down and SELL AT NEW LOW LEVELS and
make a fortune.
（黄豆期货）价格在4月30日回稳，但是没有到达4月27日的高点。在5月3日，真正的卖方市场出现了，价格下跌了10美分/蒲式耳，触及跌停板。五月合约以400.625收盘，七月合约以398.125收盘，一天跌了10美分，触及跌停。为何价格会如此下跌？这是因为聪明的投资者在4月20日价格突破新低的时候，开始卖出货物，并且他们将在价格一路走低的时候卖出货物，而此时那些期望低买高卖的投资者将在一路走跌的情况下买入以至于迷失方向（损失）。当黄豆跌至350美分，250美分甚至在2美元以下时，他们看上去就像廉价的货物，这时候那些投机商将想起1954年4月27日的422和415高点，进而买入，期望价格可以攀升到从前的水平。或许会出现那样的结果，但是有一点是可以肯定的：那就是他们损失了大量的资金，而那些跟着趋势卖空的人在整个熊市的情况下卖空自己的货物而获得丰厚的利润。
The way to make profits is to go the market's way. Do not try to
make the market go your way. Apply all the rules in my book, HOW TO
MAKE PROFITS TRADING IN COMMODITIES, follow the MAIN TREND
and SELL REGARDLESS of HOW LOW prices go as long as the trend is
down and continue to BUY AT NEW HIGHS AS LONG as the prices go up.
In this way you will make SPECULATION A PROFITABLE PROFESSION
and will have profits instead of losses.
获得利润的方法就是顺应市场，而不是企盼市场顺应你。应用我的《如何在谷物市场中获利》一书中所有的法则，跟随市场的主要趋势，在趋势向下的时候无论价格多低都要卖出，在趋势向上的时候无论价格多高都要继续买入。这样你才能把投机做成一个有利可图的职业，你才能获利而非赔本。
本节由东张西望翻译 15:35
RULES FOR TRADING IN COMMODITIES
商品期货交易规则
RULE 1. Buy at new high prices or old top levels.
规则一：在新高位或者历史顶部买入。
RULE 2. Buy when prices advance above old low price levels.
规则二：当价格上升到历史的低点价位上面时买入。
RULE 3. Sell when prices decline below old top levels or high prices.
规则三：当价格下降到历史顶部或高位以下时卖出。
RULE 4. Sell at new low price levels. As a general rule it is safer to
wait until prices advance at least 2¢ above high levels and still more
important to wait untilthey close above these levels before buying and
at the same time it is safer to wait until prices decline 1/2¢ below old
levels and still safer to wait until they close below these old levels
before making a trade.
规则四：在价格创新低时卖出。作为一个一般规则，应该等到直到价格上升到最少高于前期 的高点的2分才比较安全的，更重要的是在买入之前要等收盘价格超过前期价格。同样的，等待价格下跌到低于前期价位0.5分以下才算比较安全，并且在做交易之前等待
收盘价格低于前期价格才算更安全。(这里的2¢是指20%或者其它比例？）
RULE 5. Closing Prices. Wait to buy or sell until prices close above
old highs or below old lows on the daily or weekly charts when markets
are very active and moving fast; it is important to use the daily high and
low chart and the closing price above highs or below lows. Prices may
advance rapidly during the day but when it comes to closing time they
may run off several cents and close lower than the previous day, and at
the same time when there is a sharp decline, prices may go below the
low of the previous day but when they close they close near the high
levels; therefore, it is the closing price that is always important to keep
up on the daily, weekly or monthly high or low charts. The longer the
time period in days,weeks, months or years when prices exceed old
highs or break old lows, the greater the importance of the change in
trend and the move up or down. Remember the general rule, when
prices advance to new high levels they generally react back to the old
tops, which is a safe place to buy and when they decline below old lows,
as a rule they rally back to the old lows, which is a safe place to sell.
Always, ofcourse, protect with STOP LOSS orders.
规则五：收盘价。当市场处于非常活跃并且快速变化的阶段时，等收盘价在日、周线图表上显示高于前期高位或低于前期低位时才进行买卖。利用日高低表并且收盘价高于原来的高位或低于原来的低位这时就显得非常重要了。在当天价格可能快速的拉升，但是在临近收盘时间那些价格可能会下行几美分，然后比上一交易日更低的价格收盘。同时如果有一个急剧的下挫，价格可能会走到前一天低位的下面，但是却收在上一交易日高点附近。因此收盘价格是非常重要的。在日、周、月、年表中价格超过历史的高点或突破历低点的时间越长，趋势将会向下或向上发生巨大变化。记住这条规则，当价格上升到一个新高位
时，通常要回调到前期历史高点，这是一个安全买点；当跌破历史低点时，通常要反弹到前期历史低点，这是一个安全卖点。同时要用“止损单”进行保护。
RULE 6. STOP LOSS ORDERS. Your capital and your profits must be
protected at all times with STOP LOSS orders which must be placed
when you make the trade and not later.
规则六：设立止损点。当你进行交易时，无论何时都必须要用“止损单”随时保护你的资金及利润。
RULE 7. AMOUNT OF CAPITAL REQUIRED. It is very important to
know exactly how much of your capital that you can risk on any one
trade and never lose all your capital. When you make a trade you
should never risk more than 10% ofthe capital you have to trade with,
and if you have one or two losses, reduce your units of trading.
规则七：必要的资金。首先确定你在任何一个交易上能够承受多大的风险，并且永远不要亏损你的本金显得非常重要。当你进行一个交易时，你所冒的风险永远不能超过本金的10%。如果你已经有一到两次的损失，就要减少交易的量。
For trading in Rye and Soy Beans, you should have at least
$1500.00 for trading in5000 bushels. Suppose you risk 3¢ a bushel on a
trade; you would have to lose 10 consecutive times to wipe out your
capital. You could hardly lose it this way just guessing and by following
the rules it is impossible to lose all of your capital. Fortrading in Soy
Beans, especially at high levels, you should have at least $3000.00
capital for each 5000 bushels that you trade in because it is often
necessary to riskas much as 5¢ a bushel on Soy Beans. But the profits
are much greater than anything you can trade in.
对于黑麦及大豆期货的交易，你应该至少能有1500美元来交易5000蒲式耳。假定
在每个交易中你冒3美分/蒲式耳的风险，连续十次这样的损失才会亏损完本金。你猜测，可能会连续亏损，但是遵守规则，损失全部本金则是不可能的。对于大豆的交易，特别是在较高的价位，你应该至少有3000美元交易5000蒲式耳，因为必须要有冒损失5美分/蒲式耳的风险，但是利润却是比交易其它品种大很多。
Should you wish to trade in job lots of 1000 bushels, or 2000
bushels, you, of course, can start on a capital of $500.00 and limit
losses not more than 3¢ on anytrade and by following the rules, in
many cases your risks will not be more than 1¢a bushel. The same rules
apply to Wheat, Corn, and Lard.
当然你也可以从500 美元的资金交易1000蒲式耳或者2000蒲式耳，开始小额交易，并遵从规则限定损失不能超过3美分/蒲式耳。在许多情况下，你的风险不能超过1美分/蒲式耳。本规则同样适用于小麦、玉米及猪油品种。
Oats move in a narrower range and require about half as much
capital as Rye orWheat to trade with.
燕麦的行情波动比较小，因此需要黑麦或小麦交易的一半资金就行了。
RULE 8. THIS RULE IS FOR BOTH BUYING AND SELLING: When
prices decline 50% of the highest selling level, you can buy with a STOP
LOSS order of 3￠ below the low prices. Next strongest buying point is
50% between the extreme low and the extreme high. For example, May
Rye, the highest price it ever sold was 286? ; 50% of this is 143? and
when this level is broken by 3￠ it is in a very weak position. The lowest
level May Rye ever sold was 30￠ per bushel; 50% of this 286? and 30￠
is 158?. The highest price that cash Rye ever sold was $3.35; one half of
this is 167.5 and we have given an example of what happens when
May Rye and other options decline below 167.5 158.25 and 143.5.
规则八：此规则适用于买入和卖出。当价格下跌了前期最高点的50%时买入，同时在前期底部下面3美分处设置“止损单”。另一个较强买入点是最高点和最低点之间的50%处。例如：黑麦曾经一个最高价是286.5美分，286.5的50%就是143.5美分，当该价格跌破超过3美分时，它就处于一个非常弱的趋势。黑麦最低跌到过30美分/蒲式耳，286.5分和30分之间的50%就是158.25美分。现货交易的黑麦曾经卖到最高335美分，它的50%就是167.5。我们曾经举过当黑麦或其它农产品跌破了167.5美分、158.25美分、143.5美分时将会出现什么样走势的例子。
SELLING LEVEL. When prices advance after being far below the
50% point and reach it for the first time, it is a selling level or place to
sell short, protected with a STOP LOSS order of not more than 3￠
above the 50% price level.
卖出价位
当价格在远低于50%点的价位上升并首次触及该点时，这是一个卖出点或者短期卖出点，同时设置一个不要超过该50%价位3美分止损单。
Example: Suppose that May Rye advances to 143?. The first time it
reaches this price, if the indications on the daily chart show it is making
top, it is a short sale with a stop at 146?. The next point is 158? which
is 50% of the range between 30￠ and 286?; this is 158?. When May
Rye advances to this point you would watch for resistance and sell
short with a STOP LOSS order at 161?. After this point the next selling
level is 167? or 50% of 335. Next the range between 30￠ and 335?;
50% of this is 182? which would be the strongest resistance and the
most important selling level protected with STOP LOSS order at 185?.
例如：假设黑麦期货首次上升触及143.5美分，如果日线图表显示它正做头部，那是
个短期卖出价位，止损单下在146.5美分处。下一个点位是158.25美分，即30美分及286.5美分之间的50%价位就是158.25美分，当价格上升到此价位，你应该观察此时的阻力位并短期卖出，在161.5美分设置止损位。此后是下一个卖出价位167.5美分，或者说是335美分的50%。再下一个区间是30美分与335.5美分之间的50%，即182.5美分，该价位将是最强的阻力也是最重要的卖出点，同时在185.5美分设置止损点。
When you start trading be sure that you know all of the rules and
that you follow them, and be sure that you place a STOP LOSS ORDER.
当你开始交易时确定你知道所有的规则并遵循他们，确定你设定一个“止损单”。
WHERE TO PLACE STOP LOSS ORDERS:
在何处设置止损？
You must place STOP LOSS orders below the lows of swings and not
just belowthe lows on the daily chart. STOPS must be above old tops or
below old bottomson a weekly or monthly chart. STOP LOSS orders
placed below closing prices on the daily or weekly chart are much safer
and less likely to be caught because you are moving your STOPS
according to the trend. STOPS placed above closingprices on the daily
or weekly chart are caught a smaller number of times than if you place
them below a daily bottom or a daily top. The swings or reversals in a
market are the prices to place STOP LOSS orders one way or the other.
It is of great importance to know where to place a STOP LOSS order
properly. Grains selling below $1 a bushel, a STOP LOSS order is as a
rule safe and caught less ofthe time when you place it 1¢ below the
bottom and especially 1¢ under closingprices, or 1¢ above closing
prices. When prices are moving from $1 to $2 per bushel the STOPS
should be at least 2¢ above highs or 2¢ below lows or 2¢ above closing
prices or 2¢ below closing prices.
你一定要在波动的低位价以下设置止损点，但不是只是日线图表中的低位价。必须是在周及月图表中高于前期顶部或者低于前期底部位止损。因为你是根据趋势的变化设置止损位在日或周线图表中低于收盘价的位置，显得更加安全，被套的可能性较小。在日线图表或周线图表高于收盘价位设置止损点将比在低于日线图表底部或高于顶部以下设置止损位被套次数要多一些。市场中的价格波动或行情反转就是因为大众的止损这一情形或者其它情形造成的。知道在哪里能正确地设置一个止损位是非常重要的。售价低于1美元/蒲式耳的谷物，当在你低于底部价1美分特别是低于收盘价1美分或者是高于收盘价1美分时设置止损位是一个安全而减少套牢次数的规则。当价格从1美元/蒲式耳上升到了2美元/蒲式耳时，止损点至少应该在2美分上下或收盘价的2美分上下设置止损。
Prices at $2 to $3 per bushel. At this range of prices STOPS should
be at least 3¢under the lows or above the highs.
价格从2美元升至3美元时，在此区间内至少应该在上下3美分处设置止损。
Prices $3 to $4 per bushel. At this range of high levels fluctuations
are fast and wide and STOPS, to be safe, must be placed farther away,
at least 4¢ to 5¢ perbushel above highs or under the lows. It makes no
difference where your STOPS are placed so long as it is safe and not
caught until the time is right when there is a definite change of trend.
At the end of high prices, from $3.50 to $4. per bushel which seldom
occurs, STOPS can be placed 1¢ to 2¢ below the daily closing priceor at
1¢ to 2¢ above the daily closing prices. At extreme high prices you must
depend on the daily high and low chart to give you the first indication of
a change in trend which later will be confirmed by the weekly high and
low chart of price moves.
价格从3美元/蒲式耳升至4美元/蒲式耳时，在此高价区间内，价格大幅快速波动，所以为了安全，止损位必须设置的更远一点，要在高低处至少4-5美分/蒲式耳。在一个明确的趋势改变的来临前，只要你的资金安全且不被套牢，在哪里设置止损位都无区别。在高价区的最后阶段，极小情况下从3.5上涨到4美分/蒲式耳时，止损位可以设置在低于日收盘价1到2美分或者高于日收盘价1到2美分的位置。在一个顶部价位时，你必须根据已被周高低图表中价格变化来确认日高低图表是否已经显示了第一个趋势转变的信号。
When prices are selling at extreme high levels, follow all the rules in
my book,HOW TO MAKE PROFITS TRADING IN COMMODITIES, and if
you have taken my Master Forecasting Course, apply the rules on Great
Time Cycles as well as the minor time periods.
当出售价格在顶部高位时，遵从我的《如何在商品交易中获利》书中的所有规则，并且如果你已经拥有我的《谷物市场高级预测教程》，也可以在最短时间内应用“主要的时间循环”的原则。
Remember you can never have too much knowledge. Continue to
study and learn more for knowledge can always be turned into profits
later.
学无止境。继续研究并学习更多的知识今后能给你带来财富。
WHAT TO DO BEFORE YOU MAKE A TRADE:
交易前的功课
Check all records of prices,daily, weekly, monthly and yearly and note
all time periods. Note when the prices are near some old high levels or
near some old low levels of recent weeks or calculate just
what your risk will be before you make the trade and after you make it,
place the STOP LOSS order for your protection in case you are wrong.
检查所有价格的记录，包括每年月每周日记录，并且记录所有的时间周期，记下价格接近最近几周或几年内的一些历史高点或一些历史低位的时间。然后计算在你进行交易前和交易后所将承担的风险，在你犯错时设置止损位保护你的资金。
WEEKLY HIGH AND LOW CHART:
The weekly high and low chart is a very important trend indicator.
When prices get above a series of weekly highs or lows,or decline
below a series of weekly lows, it is of greater importance and indicates
a greater change in trend which may last for many weeks.
周高低点图表
周高低点图表是一个非常重要的趋势指示器。当价格连续上涨超过连续数周的高点或低点，或者下连续下跌超过连续数周的低位时，这是一个重要的指示，它预示可能会出现持续许多周的更大趋势改变。
MONTHLY HIGHS AND LOWS:
When prices advance above or decline below prices which have
occurred for many months past it means a greater change in trend
which can last for several months.
月度高低图表
当价格上升到超过或下跌到低于那些在过去许多月分中曾出现过的价位时，这就意味着将在未来几个月内将有更大的趋势转变。
YEARLY HIGHS AND LOWS:
When prices advance above or decline below theprices made several
years in the past, it is nearly always a sure sign of big moves which will
last for a long period of time, or at least have a greater advance
ordecline in a short period of time, and when old highs are crossed, or
lows broken,always watch for a reaction to come back to around the old
highs or slightly lower,and after they are broken, expect the rally to
advance back around the old highs or slightly below.
年度高低图表
当价格上升到超过或下跌到低于在过去几年中所出现的价位时，几乎毫无例外可以确定这是将持续一个很长时间周期日的可靠信号，或者在一个短期内至少有一个更大的上涨或下跌。当历史高点被突破或者历史底部被击穿时，通常观察返回到历史高点或低点周围时的价格反应，在它们被突破后，预期市场信心将再上升到历史高点以上或者下降到历史底部以下。
Study the yearly highs and lows and you will see the proof. Remember
the greater the time period, when it is exceeded, the greater the move
up or down.
研究年度高低图表你将发现涨跌的依据。记住，当越长的时间周期被超越时，后市的上涨或下跌空间就越大。
We will prove the rules by starting with a capital of $3000, and trading
in Rye,based on the rules given above. First, we are going to trade in
May Rye and we must know something about the history of May Rye.
我们将通过3000美元的资金依据上述规则用于黑麦期货的交易并以此来证明这些规则。首先，在我们将做五月黑麦的交易之前先必须知道关于黑麦的一些历史。
1951, July 23 low 169 holding 1.5￠above the 50% price indicated
strength and good buying because August 20 was low at 169, making
two supports at this time level. We are now buying 10,000 bushels at
169 and place STOP at 165.5 or 2￠below the 50% point.
1951年7月23日，价格跌至169美分，在50%价位以上1.5美分处站稳，指明了多方力量以及不错的买点，因为它们在8月20日的最低价169一线上做了两个支撑。我们现在于169美分买入10000蒲式耳，并且在165.5设置止损点或者在低于50%位2美分处设置止损点。
The market advances. September 20 we buy 10,000 more at 181
because it is above two tops or high levels. November 1951 we buy
10,000 more at 210because the price is above an old top of 208 of April
3, 1951. 1951, December 10 and 12th high 221.5 and 221, a top against
the high at 218. We had bought 10 at 169, 10 at 181 and 10 at 210. We
sell all these out at 219 which gives a total profit of 94￠ per bushel or
$9,400. We now with draw the capital of $3,000. and start trading on
the profits alone.
市场随后开始上涨，9月20日，因为它高过了两个顶部或者高位，所以我们在181美分又买入10000蒲式耳。1951年11月我们在210美分买入10000蒲式耳，因为该价格超过了1951年4月3日的历史顶部。1951年12月10日以及12日出现221.5以及221美分的高位，与218美分的高位发生顶背离。我们已经分别在169美分、181美分、210美分价格处各买入了10手。所以在219美分卖出所有的黑麦并获得94美分/蒲式耳或者说9400美元的总利润。现在我们提出3000美元的本金，仅用赚钱的利润去交易。
1951, December 12; we sell 20,000 bushels at 218 and place a STOP at
223.5.1952, January, we sell 20,000 at 204 and move the STOPS down
to 208. February5, 11, and 27th and March 4 the lows are 194, 192.5,
193.5 and 193. We cover the shorts at 195 and buy 40,000 at 195,
making a STOP at 190. The profits on thesedeals are $8,200. added to
the other profit gives a $17,600. to trade with.
1951年12月12日我们在218美分卖出20000蒲式耳，并且设置止损点为223.5美分。1952年1月在204美分卖出20000蒲式耳，并将止损下移到208美分。2月5日、11日、27日以及3月4日的低位分别为194、192.5、193.5和193美分。我们在195美分短线买入40000蒲式耳，将止损设在190美分。此交易的利润是8200美元，加上上次利润是17600美元。
1952, March high 211, a lower top. We sell $40,000 [bushels.5] at 207
and sellshort 40,000. at 207.
1952年3月反弹高位211美分，是一个更低的顶部。我们在207美分短线卖出40000蒲式耳。
May 1 low 193, same low as March 4; we cover shorts at 194 making a
profit of 13￠ per bushel or $5,200. added to $17,6000. gives $22,800.
capital. We stop trading in this May option because it will expire on May
20. We could trade inJuly, September or December but we wait for the
May Rye for the 1953 delivery to start trading and show a trend and
then we start trading again.
5月1日低位193美分，与3月4日的低位相同。我们在194美分作短线赚取13美分/蒲式价值5200美元的利润。加上17600美元共22800美元的资金。因为到5月20日合约即将到期，所以我们停止了交易。当时虽然可以交易7月、9月、11月合约，但是我们等到1953年5月黑麦合约的上市并显示一个趋势，然后我们再次开始交易。
1952, July 23 high 218.5 under the old top of 221.5. It declined to 207
on July 19,August 14 high 219, a second high and slightly below the
1951 high. We sell short 50,000 at 218 and place the STOP at 222.5.
The trend moves down. August 18,19th and 29th and September 20
prices are 196.5, 195.5, the same as May e we know that
the seasonal trend is usually low in the latter part of Augustor early
September, we cover all the shorts, 50,000 at 197 and buy 50,000 at
197 for long accounts and place STOP at 194. November 13 high
213-3/4 a lower topthan August 14, but we wait to sell until we get a
definite indication. November 24 and 28th lows 204, we raise STOP to
203. This STOP was caught and we sold 50,000 longs at 203 and sold
short 50,000 bushels. This gave us a total profit or working capital of
$26,3000.00. We sold 50,000 short at 203 and raised the STOPto 209.
1952年7月23日高位218.5美分，低于历史顶部221.5美分。7月19日下跌到207美分，8月14日上升到219美分，是仅低于1951年高点的第二个高点。我们在218美分短线卖出5000蒲式耳并将止损设在222.5美分。趋势向下移动。8月18、19、29日以及9月20日的价格分别是196.5美分、195.5美分，和1952年5月相同。因为我们知道季节性的趋势变化通常使价格在8月的后月以及9月初比较低。我们在197美分买了50000蒲式耳作短线，又在197美分买了50000蒲式耳作长线，并在194美分处设止损。11月13日高位213.75美分比8月14日的顶部更低，但是我们一直等到一个明确指示出现时再卖。我们将止损提高到203美分，在11月24日、28日出现低位204美分，此止损点触及，因此我们在203美分卖出了5000蒲式耳短线和5000蒲式耳长线，我们赚取了共263000美元的周转资金。后面在203美分卖了5000蒲式耳短线，将止损位设在209美分。
December the market broke the price of 195, the old low. We sold
25,000 more at193 and made STOP on 75,000 at 196. 1953 January
prices broke the lows of July1952 at 190. We sell 25,000 at 188 making
STOP on 100,000 at 193.
12月市场突破了历史低点195美分，我们在193美分又卖出25000蒲式耳，并在196美分设置了75000蒲式耳的止损，1953年1月价格下跌到190美分并突破了1952
年7月的低位。我们在188美分卖掉25000蒲式耳，在193美分设置100000蒲式耳的止损。
January 1953 – 12th – low 180. January 15 high 187, reduce STOP on
100,000 to189.5.
1953年1月12日低位180美分，1月18日高位187美分，将100000蒲式耳的止损降到189.5美分。
February 13 low 3 high 182.5, reduce STOP to 186.
2月13日低位171美分，3月3日高位182.5美分，将止损降至186美分。
Later in March the price broke 171 low. We sell 25,000 more at 166
when the price breaks the low of 169 of July 21, 1927 and it had broke
50% of 335.5 whichis 167-3/4, putting it in a very weak position with
the main trend down.
在后来的三月份，价格向下击穿171美分。当价格击穿1927年7月21日的低位169美分时我们又在166美分卖出25000蒲式耳，这时价格已经击穿了335.5美分的50%，也就是167.25美分，随着大势的下降，市场这时处于一个非常微弱的情形中。
May 11 low 154
5月11日低点154美分
March 3 high 182.5, reduce STOP to 186.
3月高点在182.5美分，止损移动到186美分。
Later in March the price broke 171 low. We sell 25,000 more at 166
when the price breaks the low of 169 of July 21, 1951 and it has broke
50% of 335.5 which is 167-3/4 putting it in a very weak position with
the main trend down.
3月后期价格击穿171低点。价格突破1951年7月21日的低点169美分，在跌
破335.5的50%即167.75美分时，我们又在166美分卖出25,000蒲式耳，下跌趋势已经非常的虚弱。
May 11 low 154. We buy 125,000 at 156 to cover because the May
option will expire about May 20 [1953]. We now have a total profit of
$69,550. to work can now trade safely on 100,000 bushels
which gives 70￠ per bushel marginand a loss of 3￠ on 100,000
bushels would be $3,000. and if we lost for ten consecutive times we
would still have more than half or 50% of our capital to trade with,
which is perfectly safe.
因为5月份的合约即将在5月20日到期，我们在156美分平了125000蒲式耳。我们目前共有资金69550美元来操作，所以现在就可以比较的操作100000蒲式耳了，这将获得70美分/蒲式耳的利润，按亏损3美分计算，100000蒲式耳的损失只是3000美元，假如我们连续10次损失我们将仍然有原来一半以上的资金去交易，这就显得极其安全。
We wait for May Rye for 1953 [1954.5] delivery to give an
indication of what it is going to do.
我们将等1953年5月黑麦的交割后，观察其给我们未来交易给出下步操作指示。
1953, July 6. The option opened at 153, a new low. July 7 high 156
when itbreaks 153 we sell 100,000 bushels at 152 and make the STOP
157. It declinesvery fast and we sell 25,000 more at 140 because it is
3.5￠ below the 50% of 286.5 which is 243.5 [143.5.5], the high of May
7, 1946 and we wait until the price is 3￠below this level which puts it in
a very weak position before going short.
1953年7月6日，该合约以新低价153美分上市。7月7日上涨的高点156美分，当它击穿了153美分时我们在152美分卖出100000蒲式耳，止损位157美分。
随后行情暴跌，于是我们又在140美分售出25000蒲式耳，因为它低于286.5美分的50%的3.5美分，该价位143.5也是1946年5月7日的高位。我们等待价格跌至此价位3美分下面，在短期走强之前，此价位使市场处于非常微弱的境地。
1953, July 28 low 133.5, August 6 high 140-3/4 and 140; we make
the STOP on125,000 at 145, the decline continues and breaks the low
of 133.5. We sell 25,000 more at 131.5 and make STOP at 142.5.
1953年7月28日低点133.5美分，8月6日高点140.75美分与140美分；我们将125000蒲式耳的止损点设在145美分，下降持续并且突破了低点133.5美分。我们继续在131.5美分卖出25000蒲式耳，止损位142.5美分。
August 13 low 121, August 17 high 135.5, reduce STOP to 137.
August 28 andSeptember 15 and September 23 low 116.5, 114-3/4,
115. We know that theseasonal lows are often made in August and
September and the trend turns up sowe reduce the STOP to 121 on the
shorts. The STOP was caught and we buy150,000 at 121. We now have
a capital of $127.500 to work with. We buy100,000 at 121 and make
STOP 114.
8月13日低点121美分，8月17日高位135.5美分，将止损位降137美分。8月28日以及9月15日9月23日低位美分别为116.5美分、114.75美分、115美分。我们知道季节性低点常常产生在8、9月份，并且趋势也在这里发生转折。因此我们将短期止损点设在121美分。目前共有资金127500美元，于是在121美分买入了100000蒲式耳，止损位114美分。
November 2, high 134, November 17 and 30th low 133.5; we make
STOP er 14 high 133.5, a slightly lower top, we raise
STOP to 129. STOP was caught. We sold 100,000 at 129 with 8.5 profit
which gives us a working capital of$135,500. We sold short 100,000
